Overview of market conditions

November delivered one of the strongest month-on-month (MoM) expansions of 2025, with the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) rising 9.75% as peak season demand and concentrated Asia-origin flows pushed pricing higher across global lanes. Shanghai led all markets, with its outbound index (BAI80) up over 16% and North America lanes (BAI82, BAI84) rising more than 17% on strong e-commerce demand. Hong Kong also increased, with BAI30 up nearly 8% during the promotional peak.

Frankfurt rebounded, with BAI20 up 11% and double-digit gains on Frankfurt–USA (BAI24) and Frankfurt–North America (BAI22). Meanwhile, Heathrow (BAI40) was flat, Chicago (BAI50) rose 1%, and Singapore (BAI60) saw the steepest drop at –12.56% as flows shifted toward North Asia and winter schedules tightened capacity.

 

Four key drivers of market dynamics

 

Peak-season e-commerce activity lifted Asia-origin rates: Major promotional events including Double 11, Black Friday and Cyber Monday generated a sharp spike in parcel demand, squeezing networks across both the Transpacific and Asia–Europe lanes. Shanghai–North America (BAI82) and Shanghai–USA (BAI84) recorded the strongest increases, each up more than 17% MoM. Hong Kong lanes, including Hong Kong–North America (BAI32) and Hong Kong–USA (BAI34), also strengthened.

Trade realignment continued to support Asia–Europe strength: Diversified sourcing across China and Southeast Asia kept long-haul volumes steady, with Shanghai–Europe (BAI81) and Hong Kong–Europe (BAI31) rising. Postal and cross-border parcel flows into the European Union hubs remained strong.

 

Freighter redeployment helped restore Frankfurt’s momentum: After several quiet months, Frankfurt saw outbound gains. Frankfurt–USA (BAI24) and Frankfurt–North America (BAI22) rose suddenly as carriers redeployed widebody lift toward higher-yield markets. Southeast Asia demand also improved, shown in Frankfurt–SEA (BAI23).

 

Southeast Asia diverged, with Singapore sharply weaker: Singapore’s outbound index (BAI60) fell 12.56% and Singapore–SEA (BAI63) declined 12.50%, driven by sourcing shifts toward North Asia, post-holiday production patterns, and seasonal capacity adjustments.

 

Regional and route-specific insights

Asia–Europe shows sustained strength: Asia–Europe remained one of November’s strongest corridors. Shanghai–Europe (BAI81) gained nearly 15% and Hong Kong–Europe (BAI31) rose over 9%, supported by strong consolidation flows and diversified sourcing across China, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Pricing remained firm despite incremental long-haul capacity additions.

Asia–North America was the month’s strongest corridor: Transpacific activity accelerated ahead of holiday cutoffs, producing the sharpest sequential gains of the year. Shanghai–USA (BAI84) increased over 17% and Shanghai–North America (BAI82) also rose 17%. Hong Kong–North America (BAI32)improved, showing effective routing adjustments and robust e-commerce demand despite persistent tariff-related drag on year-over-year comparisons.

Europe–North America showed modest but broad improvements: Frankfurt led the region’s improvement with strong gains on Frankfurt–USA (BAI24) and Frankfurt–North America (BAI22). Heathrow–USA (BAI44) posted a smaller increase of 5.2%, consistent with the airport’s more stable but less dynamic traffic mix.

 

Intra-Asia and Southeast Asia had a mixed performance: Hong Kong–SEA (BAI33) rose 4.45%, while Singapore–SEA (BAI63) dropped sharply. These deviations reflected shifting consolidation patterns and seasonally adjusted capacity rather than underlying structural changes.

 

Freighter market and supply-side trends

Freighter capacity stayed tight in November, with widebodies operating near peak utilisation. Although conversion programmes (particularly the 777-300ERSF) are showing progress, a lack of feedstock and long turnaround times are limiting near-term expansion. Operators are relying heavily on extended utilisation and tactical redeployment of current capacity to manage the 2025 peak season uplift.

As shown earlier in the month following the MD-11F fleet grounding, the industry remains highly sensitive and even modest capacity shifts can significantly influence rate behavior across Asia-origin markets.

 

What the indicators say about demand

Supply-chain indicators supported November’s momentum. IATA reported an eighth straight month of global CTK growth in October (+4.1% year-on-year), driven by strong flows within Asia and between Europe and Asia. Asia-Pacific carriers saw a 2.2% increase, helped by e-commerce and diversified sourcing. Retail surveys in APAC and Europe pointed to solid holiday demand, consistent with the uplift seen in November. On the other hand, export orders remained weak, highlighting the gap between robust consumer-driven air cargo and softer industrial activity globally.

 

December and early-2026 outlook

Cargo Facts Consulting expects demand to remain firm through December as holiday clearances coincide with ongoing trade realignment and limited widebody capacity. Asia–Europe should remain the strongest corridor, while Transpacific performance will be driven by adjustments to evolving US import and tariff rules.

A seasonal reset is likely to happen in January, but structural constraints, including limited feedstock for conversions, high aircraft utilisation, and slow widebody additions, will continue to keep supply tight into early 2026. Rate volatility, particularly on Asia-origin lanes such as Shanghai (BAI80) and Hong Kong (BAI30), is expected to continue until significant new capacity enters the market.

About Cargo Facts Consulting

Founded in 1978, Cargo Facts Consulting (www.cargofactsconsulting.com) is a leading air cargo consultancy and data provider. Through our specialised services in digital innovation, strategic planning, and growth management and data solutions, Cargo Facts Consulting helps its clients navigate the complexities of the air logistics industry.

 

Receive monthly air freight market reports direct to your inbox.