BAI Index September 2026: August sees rate declines in most lanes

The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) for August fell 1.52% month on month (MoM), showing that prices continued to ease on most lanes, albeit not to the same extent as July.

For example, the Hong Kong Outbound Index (BAI30) dipped by 1.15% MoM while the Shanghai Pudong Outbound Index (BAI80) fell by 3.54%. In addition, the London Heathrow Outbound Index (BAI40) dropped 5.82% and the Singapore Outbound Index (BAI60) registered a double-digit decrease of 16.28%.

Chicago O’Hare Outbound (BAI50) was the only one of the main outbound indices to see a MoM increase in August at 10.17%.

Asia-Europe adjusts to EU de minimis change
Since the European Union’s new temporary €3 fee for all low-value parcel imports worth less than €150 came into force on 1 July, the flow of small packages into the EU has fallen by up to 50%, France’s Economy Minister Roland Lescure said at an event in Paris at the end of August.

As a result, the market may still be feeling the effects of this structural change as it settles to another new normal, with the Hong Kong to Europe Index (BAI31) dropping 12.75% MoM in August and Shanghai Pudong to Europe (BAI81) declining 7.76%.

AI hardware continues to support transpacific activity

Meanwhile, transpacific rates appeared to stabilise in August after witnessing MoM decreases in July.

Hong Kong to North America (BAI32) was up 0.31% and Hong Kong to USA (BAI34) grew by 1.17%, while Shanghai Pudong to North America (BAI82) increased by 0.33%. Shanghai Pudong to USA (BAI84) was almost flat, with a dip of 0.01%.

The Asia-North America lane continues to be supported by the booming demand for high-value cargoes, such as semiconductors, server racks, data centre infrastructure and other related hardware, to support the United States’ rapidly growing AI industry.

Other lanes

The only other corridors where rates increased in August compared to July were London Heathrow to Southeast Asia (BAI43) at 0.16% and Chicago O’Hare to Southeast Asia (BAI53), which shot up 15.54%.

On the other hand, Singapore to Southeast Asia (BAI63) dropped by 15.44%, reflecting possible overcapacity on that particular lane.

Freighter supply

With more MD-11Fs gradually coming back online with both FedEx and Western Global Airlines, the large-widebody segment is seeing some relief to the tightness in capacity, according to Cargo Facts Consulting analysis.

At the same time, the first converted 777-200LRMF from Mammoth Freighters are being prepared for entry into service with DHL, with 777 conversions generally ramping up in the months ahead.

Short-term outlook: Another tariff on China?
As Chinese President Xi Jinping travels to India ahead of an official visit to meet US President ‌Donald ⁠Trump in Washington later in September, the US is reportedly looking to impose an additional 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods after an investigation into alleged structural excess capacity and production in manufacturing.

Should this new tariff be implemented, it is likely to result in more frontloading similar to what happened in 2024, which could strain the already tight Asia-North America corridor and push rates up further.

About Cargo Facts Consulting

Founded in 1978, Cargo Facts Consulting (www.cargofactsconsulting.com) is a leading air cargo consultancy and data provider. Through our specialised services in digital innovation, strategic planning, and growth management and data solutions, Cargo Facts Consulting helps its clients navigate the complexities of the air logistics industry.

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